New Jersey Remains a Developing Swing State
Despite setbacks on Tuesday, data still indicate growth for Republicans in the Garden State. A successful campaign involves estimating the electoral landscape—predicting how many votes are needed to win. This process is more an art than a science, grounded in past elections and political enthusiasm.
Numerous external factors beyond a campaign’s control can influence outcomes, such as a pandemic altering voting methods, a housing market recession, or voter backlash against the party controlling Congress and the White House pushing unpopular legislation like healthcare reforms.
Factors Influencing Campaign Success
The difference between effective and ineffective campaigns in challenging environments lies in their ability to localize the race to overcome national trends or to meet specific vote targets to secure down-ballot victories.
“What separates good campaigns from bad campaigns in such environments is whether they can manage either to localize the race to such a degree that they can break national headwinds (see Nassau County circa 2025) or to hit their target numbers to save some down-ballot races.”
Jack Ciattarelli’s Campaign Performance
Though not flawless, Jack Ciattarelli’s campaign for governor gathered enough votes that would have won any New Jersey gubernatorial election since 1973—except for 2025. Unlike Winsome Sears, who received over 200,000 fewer votes than Glenn Youngkin, Ciattarelli achieved the highest vote count for a New Jersey Republican gubernatorial candidate in 50 years.
“Ciattarelli received the most votes of any New Jersey Republican running for governor in a half-century.”
Unfortunately for the GOP candidate, the efforts still fell short in the 2025 election.
Author's summary: New Jersey's political landscape remains fluid, with Republican campaigns growing yet facing challenges amid complex national and local influences shaping election outcomes.