Canadian History and the Politics of Floor-Crossing
Terms like traitor, shameful, brave, and principled are often used to describe MPs who switch party allegiance. However, one label that rarely applies to floor-crossers is "re-electable."
Recent Developments
In Ottawa, many were surprised when longtime Conservative Chris d'Entremont joined the federal Liberal caucus, with Prime Minister Mark Carney suggesting others might follow.
Historical Perspective
Floor-crossing has been part of Canadian politics since Confederation. Nevertheless, historical records reveal an increasing electoral penalty for politicians who change parties.
Electoral Impact Over Time
Semra Sevi, assistant professor at the University of Toronto’s political science department, analyzed all MPs who switched parties from Confederation to 2015. She found that before the mid-20th century, floor-crossers maintained roughly the same vote share after switching. Since the 1970s, however, their electoral support has significantly diminished.
“Switching parties is an extremely risky move that almost always hurts a politician's chances of re-election,”
Sevi explained,
“As parties become institutionalized, the electoral cost of switching has risen dramatically. So that makes political survival outside of one's party increasingly unlikely.”
Yet, there are rare cases where such politicians succeed.
Summary
Floor-crossing in Canadian politics has historically been risky, with growing electoral consequences reducing politicians' chances of re-election after changing party affiliation.
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