Decomposing Life Expectancy Changes in Spain During the COVID-19 Pandemic and Post-Pandemic Periods
Background
The COVID-19 pandemic caused a significant drop in life expectancy at birth (LE) across Western Europe in 2020, with recovery only observed by 2023. Despite being heavily impacted by the pandemic, Spain maintained the highest LE within the European Union. This study aims to break down LE changes in Spain from 2019 to 2023 by age groups and causes of death, and to compare these results with the pre-pandemic period from 2010 to 2019.
Methods
Life expectancy and mortality data by age and major causes of death were sourced from the Spanish National Institute for Statistics (INE) for the years 2010, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2023. The Arriaga decomposition method was used to estimate age-specific contributions to LE changes. Contributions by age group were then distributed proportionally according to the main causes of death.
Results
In 2020, age groups older than 20 years showed a negative impact on life expectancy. However, most of these groups contributed positively in subsequent years up to 2023. Paradoxically, the age groups most affected in 2020 showed overall positive LE contributions during 2019–2023, whereas individuals under 45 years old continued to have negative effects on LE.
Infectious diseases were the primary factor behind the sharp decline in life expectancy in 2020, causing a reduction of 1.33 years in the total population. This impact was more pronounced in men, with a loss of 1.43 years, compared to 1.16 years in women.
Infectious diseases were the main contributor to the sharp drop in life expectancy in 2020, accounting for −1.33 years in the total population, with a more severe impact in men (−1.43 years) than in women (−1.16 years).
Summary
The study highlights the uneven impact of COVID-19 on life expectancy in Spain, with older age groups recovering after initial losses and younger populations still experiencing negative effects.
Author's conclusion
Spain’s life expectancy changes during and after the COVID-19 pandemic show distinct age and cause-specific patterns, emphasizing the varying recovery trajectories across different demographic groups.