At COP 28 in Dubai, 2023, as part of the first Global Stocktake (GST1) discussion, governments negotiated and agreed a clear set of 2030 energy and methane goals that aligned with limiting warming to 1.5°C. These included tripling renewable energy capacity, doubling the rate of energy efficiency improvements, and cutting methane emissions.
We show for the first time the huge climate benefits if governments were to implement what they have negotiated and agreed for these three critical energy and methane goals. We evaluate the global benefits of governments taking concerted action to deliver on the goals by 2030 and 2035, both in terms of emission trajectories and warming implications. These actions would bring projected 21st century warming below 2°C. The outlook improves significantly (by about 0.9°C), almost as much as the entire 1°C improvement in the global warming outlook seen over the ten years since the Paris Agreement was adopted in 2015, and would be a major step towards keeping the 1.5° limit in sight. Unlike any previous improvements in targets and policies under the Paris Agreement, the implementation of these measures would quickly begin to slow the rate of warming from about 0.25° per decade at present, rather than under current policies which would see a slight acceleration by 2030.
By implementing the agreed 2030 energy and methane goals—tripling renewable energy capacity, doubling energy efficiency improvements, and cutting methane—global warming would be slowed. This would reduce the pace of warming from about 0.25°C per decade to a slower trajectory, moving warming below 2°C in the 21st century and advancing toward the 1.5°C target.
The analysis highlights the potential climate benefits if governments translate negotiations into action by 2030 and 2035, illustrating notable reductions in emissions trajectories and a meaningful shift in the warming outlook.